Material Prospects for the 21st Century

Dr. Sarfaraz K Niazi (e-mail: niazi@niazi.com)

The last two centuries have brought three major changes in the life of the inhabitants of this planet. First, it is the use of non-renewable energy sources from earth, triggered by the conversion of heat to mechanical energy in steam engines. Second, it is the population explosition. Thirdly, it is the accumulation os waste that has directly impacted on the environment of this planet.

The non-renewable sources of energy comprise 3,000 million tons of coal, 3,000 million tons of crude oil, 2,000 billion cubic meters of natural gas, all combined giving about 7,000 million tons of crude oil equivalent (the TEP unit). Nuclear energy, now adds about 500 million TEPS to a total of 7,500 million TEPS. The renewable sources include hydraulic energy, geothermal, photovoltaic etc. The solar energy through non-renewable does not tax the assets of earth. All of these renewable sources combine provide about 16 to 18% of our present needs.

The exponential increase in the use of energy parallels a massive increase in world population. At slightly less than one billion in 1800, it stands today at 5.4 billion. The population has grown constantly but irregularly. About 100 million people lived on earth during the culturual hegemony of Athens in the 5th century BC, about 200 million at the time of Charlemagne, and 500 million during the Renaissance. Thus during about 1,000 years the population quintipled. The same quntipling occured during the past 160 years. Increased availability of goods, enhanced hygiene and healthcare are responsible for this meteroic rise in the population.